FiveThirtyEight projects that Kelly has a 66 percent probability of winning.Īrizona’s Senate race is best understood in the broader context of a highly competitive state in which this year’s GOP ticket is dominated from top-to-bottom by MAGA election deniers who are benefiting from border-control concerns along with the general sense that Democrats are losing their grip on Latino voters (some alienated by cultural progressivism and others just upset by inflation like everyone else). A late poll from Insider Advantage shows the race actually tied, and another from Remington Research gives Kelly a three-point lead. But the contest has unmistakably tightened with Kelly now leading in the RealClearPolitics polling averages by a single point. Masters is a MAGA-movement bellwether.Ī third Senate race featuring a Trump primary endorsee struggling to catch a national wave is in Arizona, where incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly has yet to trail Peter Thiel protégé Blake Masters in a single public poll. Warnock has run a steady and magnificently funded race, but it could clearly go either way now or in December.Īrizona: Kelly vs. FiveThirtyEight’s projections give the Republican 63 percent odds of finishing ahead (though perhaps not with a majority).Īside from the possible overtime contest, this race has been characterized by a drumbeat of revelations about Walker’s background that have kept him from fully benefiting from what is looking to be a Republican wave in the state. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver was at 4.5 percent in the latest poll of the race from Landmark Communications, which showed Walker leading Warnock by 1.4 percent with 46.8 percent of the vote.

Crucially, however, neither candidate is polling at or very near 50 percent in a state that famously requires general-election runoffs if no one wins a majority of the vote. In another Senate race where a Republican often mocked as a low-quality candidate has caught up with a Democratic front-runner, Herschel Walker now leads Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock by 0.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling averages.

Midterm predictions